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Residents of the Big Apple will find out who will be their next mayor this Tuesday, in a race that will decide who governs and protects the nation's most populous metropolis at a moment when the former president has vowed to send armed forces to the city.

Against that backdrop, New York has experienced a race for mayor that has matched two very different Democrats against one another. The election has turned into an increasingly bitter showdown, marked by accusations of racial bias and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the ideological divide between the two main candidates that could have major implications for how the party fares in next year's congressional races.

The Progressive Challenger

On the left side is Zohran Mamdani, the 34-year-old democratic socialist whose meteoric rise and people-powered movement has attracted global notice. On the establishment side is Andrew Cuomo, the former Democratic New York governor now running as an independent – and benefiting from the support of ultra-rich donors and big business.

With days to go, it is Mamdani, the one-time underdog who defeated his opponent in the Democratic primary who is firmly installed as the frontrunner. The candidate, who has run on a platform of economic justice and pledged to freeze rent for about two million New Yorkers, has outpaced his rival by double-digits across all surveys taken in October, and it is very much the younger man's election to lose.

The Controversial Campaign

Yet, the former governor, who stepped down as the state's leader in recent years amid accusations of misconduct, has stated clearly he will fight to the finish, and not necessarily in an fair manner. He has criticized Mamdani's goals as unachievable, and in the final stretch chuckled along as a broadcaster made Islamophobic remarks about Mamdani, who is a Muslim. Recently, the independent was strongly criticized as bigoted after posting an artificial intelligence video that included a series of racial caricatures and showed his opponent freeing a group of criminals.

It's been a particularly ugly conclusion to an election that could be critical to the path that the party, floundering in its response to Trump's power moves, takes in the near future.

Broader Consequences

Should the progressive wins convincingly, the party establishment who have declined to support his bid will be compelled to address a platform that has appealed to voters' anger at inequality, inflation and the establishment. It would be difficult for Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries not to adopt at least some of Mamdani's progressive proposals about economic justice, given the newcomer has generated an excitement within the Democratic ranks arguably not seen since Bernie Sanders campaigned for the White House eight years ago.

However, should the former governor, who had been expected to sail to victory in the June primary, complete a surprising comeback win, it could reinforce the party's existing approach of cautious, uninspiring resistance – a tactic that has infuriated grassroots members. A NYC rejection of Mamdani's progressive, positive message could persuade party leaders that the best plan is to stick to the center – even as surveys show the present version of the Democratic party is widely disliked across the country.

Voter Enthusiasm

Voters in New York appear to favor the Mamdani vision. Surveys show that his backers are much more excited about their candidate than Cuomo backers, something that has been evident throughout the campaign. Mamdani's snappy videos on digital platforms, his hopeful outlook for New York and his willingness to actually venture out and meet people in the city has attracted an army of more than 50,000 volunteers, many of them youth or first-time voters.

Personal Attacks

Yet, the former governor, 67, isn't giving up. And with the risks against him, the ex-leader has resorted to negative campaigning in the final days.

Following extensive throwing basically everything at his opponent to see what might stick, Cuomo has concentrated on attacking the candidate directly. He has called his rival, who was born in Uganda to Indian parents, an “extremist”, and popped up on conservative media for an discussion with a rightwing host, where the candidate claimed the city “will not survive” Mamdani as mayor. It hit bottom recently, when Cuomo chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said Mamdani would “cheer” another terrorist attack.

Campaign Dynamics

This strategy echoes much of what the former president, who has sent the military reserves to the capital and threatened to do the same to NYC, has said about Mamdani, and maybe that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A set of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who contributed to the Republican in the last presidential race, have invested heavily into trying to get Cuomo into office, as other powerful voices have urged Curtis Sliwa to drop out from the contest.

Political Histories

As far as the Cuomo camp, and his billionaire supporters, are concerned, it should never have come to this point. When Mamdani, one of 150 New York state assembly members, started his mayoral bid in last year, few had known him, and in truth, barely anyone even noticed.

Cuomo, by contrast, entered smoothly into the contest in March 2025 and became the instant favorite. He was the big beast who seemingly held every edge. The classic political insider, he had married a political dynasty member and served in a Democratic presidency. He assumed office as the state's leader in 2011, 17 years after his parent, the former governor, stepped down from the identical role.

The progressive, who was voted in to the New York state assembly in recently, does not have the same political heritage. But his commitment to providing free buses and affordable child services – along with the rent control promise – offer a more positive vision of the future than Cuomo’s dire warnings about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his promise to hire more police officers.

Recent Challenges

Nevertheless, the candidate has faced some challenges in the final phase, after video emerged suggesting him implying the NYPD and the IDF were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the police is on your throat, it’s been laced by the Israeli military,” the candidate said in the clip, filmed at a DSA convention in 2023. The progressive, a longtime critic of the Israeli government who has said the country is engaging in atrocities in Gaza, indicated he was questioning joint training exercises between the NYPD and IDF.

Emotional Response

As the race closes, Mamdani seems to have gained empathy and backing, however, for his response to Cuomo’s escalating attacks.

The progressive addressed the independent's 9/11 remarks in an heartfelt recording. In it, the candidate recalled how, when he first campaigned for state assembly, a family member advised to him that he did not have to tell people about his Muslim faith. It was a realization, Mamdani said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been told “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the shadows of our community. That it is in those shadows alone where Muslims could express their true selves, and that if we were to emerge from those shadows, then it is in those silence that we must leave our beliefs.”

Addressing the behavior of his opponents, who has alleged Mamd