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Mounting concerns have emerged about the possibility of military engagement involving Horn of Africa countries, Ethiopia and the Eritrean government, as confrontational rhetoric has escalated in the last month.

What Did Ethiopia Said?

Landlocked Ethiopia's demands for entry to the maritime outlet through Eritrean territory has provoked a intense rhetorical conflict.

The Ethiopian leader initially stated publicly in 2023 that his government's access to the sea was an vital issue, remarks that Eritrea rejected.

Relations between the neighboring nations have often been tense. After a long-standing fight for sovereignty, Eritrea, which has a long Red Sea coastline, formally separated from Ethiopian rule in 1993, rendering it cut off from the sea.

Five years later, a military clash erupted in which over a hundred thousand people lost their lives.

Latest Remarks from Ethiopian Leadership

Abiy and military leader the army commander have directly stated sovereignty of Eritrean coastal city of Assab – about 60km from the boundary - and implied the intention to capture it through military means.

Recently, Abiy said the country's "mistake" of losing access to the sea as a due to Eritrea's separation would be "corrected in the future".

The Ethiopian envoy to neighboring Kenya, retired Gen Bacha Debele, said that the port was "belonging to Ethiopia" and would be returned "by force".

Eritrean Answer to the Claims

Amid continuous warnings from Ethiopia, Eritrea's reaction has been confined to concise remarks on online platforms from Information Minister Yemane Gebremeskel.

The minister has dismissed Ethiopian requests for maritime entry calling it "dangerous" and a "negative policy" of "territorial claims" – a approach of claiming back previous domains.

The information ministry cautioned on 16 September that attempts to justify "obvious provocation" would have serious consequences for the Ethiopian government and its neighbouring countries and is a "limit that should not be crossed|violated|breached".

Military Movements on the Ground

Currently, there are few indications of significant troop deployments in the boundary zones between the neighboring states.

However, in Ethiopia, national TV has shown completion events of many recruits at multiple army bases.

The director of human resources department of the armed forces, General Hachalu, recently said in an conversation that the army was in a "reliable position" as "tens of thousands of young people" were joining it, which he said was "a warning to our opponents".

Past Roots of the Tension

For decades from the late 19th century, Eritrea was ruled by colonial powers.

After the end of Italian rule, it was then managed by the British administration before evolving into a integrated region of the Ethiopian empire.

But in 1962 Emperor Haile Selassie I cancelled this agreement and Eritrea became fully incorporated into the Ethiopian state.

A extended civil war ensued, concluding with the government's loss in 1991. Independence was then approved by voters in a vote in 1993.

For a few years in the 1990s, there were good relations between the authorities in Ethiopia's capital and Asmara, but they disagreed over the specific demarcation of their common border, leading to conflict in 1998.

Even though this concluded in a truce in 2000, it was never fully implemented, and the two nations stayed at odds.

This changed in 2018, when the Prime Minister made gestures to Eritrea's leader President Isaias. The two endorsed a declaration that the hostilities was over – a move that gained the Prime Minister the international recognition.

The two governments were then partners in Ethiopia's previous civil war in the northern region.

Yet relations have since broken down again.