A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that divided the country and unleashed chaos, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the political, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely split population where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate even with the basics. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer endorses unity or the current situation. They writes two pieces that aim for objectivity in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and societal figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates cover flags and symbols, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they prefer unification but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will in the end lose but each side has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
