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Ordinarily, the NFL's Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a simple formula. It often functions as a form of mea culpa. We regret we underestimated your franchise in our pre-campaign forecasts.

On paper, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the skipper who engineered the largest improvement receives the prize. However, it sparks an annual discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly honoring excellent leadership or merely the most shocking surprise.

However the current competition is profoundly different. The list of contenders is remarkably talented. It has been the year of turnarounds. The league has been chaotic, with reigning division champions declining and longtime strugglers improving together. In an typical season, a coach guiding the his team to the top of the conference would make him the stone-cold front-runner. But in such a turbulent and thrilling season, he's facing multiple other outstanding candidates.

Here is how the ideal ballot could shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters love QBs. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. When you transform a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson didn't merely corrected his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. In the right environment, the QB has been afforded the chance to demonstrate his special talent. From Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a hot streak – it's sustained excellence. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly confident, less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the scheme rather than improvising. It is an offense constructed solely in Johnson's vision: a physical ground attack, a steady dose of play-action and a innovative passing attack that creates wide-open receivers all over the field. The QB has taken advantage. And when clear throws weren't there, he's been capable to spin big plays out of broken plays.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a specific offensive philosophy. Virtually every gamble – rebuilding the trenches, highlighting the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a timing-based passer – has worked. This is rare for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer yet for a leader who walked into the organization with the kind of expectations Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the top candidate on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, he has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a offensive genius but the kind of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an organization.

During a typical year, he would be the clear-cut choice. But the current isn't a typical campaign!

The area where Johnson's candidacy runs a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on takeaways, and takeaways are famously unreliable. Defensive minds can stress creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offensive production is real. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. With a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be several wins behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is established for sustained success. However he falls just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable situation to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time leader who has engineered a swift turnaround. During the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest overall ball of his professional life. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defense that now sits at fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, he has mastered the leadership stuff, which was not a certainty after his initial press conference appearances and some of his offseason moves.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the ideal staff blend of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen bet on first-timers. From the leader on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That kind of approach is intriguing on paper, but often fails in practice – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a their job on the fly. Yet Coen has managed to bring the entire group and all elements together.

After an early hot beginning, there was a possibility that the season would veer off the track. A midseason setback had the Jags stumbling once more. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. Coen did not. Rather, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run plays and started seeking consistent ones. Coen recentered the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's No 3 seed. He receives the slightest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year case has a pivotal moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB move.

Parting ways from a incumbent, bringing in a new signal-caller and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator could have derailed the season in October. Instead, it made it. By the middle point of the season, the new QB was an MVP candidate. He has regressed after that time, slipping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the season, putting him only one spot ahead of peers.

Still